Which Country Could Next Abolish Their Monarchy?

[qzwxec]

My bet is on Australia as the next to become a republic, but Her Majesty is going there soon. Maybe this Royal Visit will change some minds. Would be good.

 

[Smart]

Bahrain for failing to understand the Arab spring and adapt accordingly.
Swaziland because the king keeps spending money on his family that should be spent on his people.
Belgium because politicians seem intend on breaking the country up. The RF seem to be the only Belgians in Belgium.

They have always been the only Belgians in the world.

I don't see Bahrain becoming a Republic anytime soon, but I hope it does.
Swaziland is an oligarchy, not a monarchy.

 

[NGalitzine]

I have even heard talk of Canada becoming a republic after the Queen's reign is over. I sure hope this never comes to pass.

Well in Canada the process requires not only the approval of Parliament but also that of all 10 provinces and the provinces have never agreed on anything when it come sto constitutional change.

 

[Ruhije]

End of any Monarchies?

The only Reigning Monarchy that i could really see heading in that direction in future, but not necessarily soon, would be Bahrain because of the recent and ongoing unrest and oppression of the people, especially with the Sunni/Shia imbalance and divide, and the Bahraini Al-Khalifah Dynasty being of the Sunni minority (but ruling elite).
I cant think of any other obviously and equally unpopular ruling dynasties at any similar level of crisis, but i suppose the ones to watch in the longer-term future for signs of any public (and brave) unrest could be Saudi Arabia.
Other countries that could maybe have the ingredients for unrest or political crisis are not obvious candidates for any anger to be directed and targeted at their fairly or even very popular Monarchies - Morocco, Jordan, Thailand.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

From what I have read Juan Carlos is respected for his role in transitioning the nation from a fascist dictatorship to a constitutional monarchy.

Not necessarily to a constitutional monarchy, but to democracy. Many people think that JC's job is done and that the constitutional monarchy served its purpose.

When the first goes, others will follow. I see Spain or Belgium among the first, Denmark & Britain among the last to go.

 

[James VI]

Confusion

The results of this poll are completely confusing. Spain is rated as most likely to abolish it`s Monarchy, despite the fact that none of the mainstream parties, in Spanish politics, have any real committment to doing so. Sweden, conversely, is given one of the lowest ratings and yet, the social democrats, communists and greens are all committed to at least holding a referendum on the subject, at some stage.

 

[Furienna]

But I think Swedish people in general have no real interest in abolishing the monarchy. Victoria at least is popular.

 

[CharlotteAmalia]

The results of this poll are completely confusing. Spain is rated as most likely to abolish it`s Monarchy, despite the fact that none of the mainstream parties, in Spanish politics, have any real committment to doing so. Sweden, conversely, is given one of the lowest ratings and yet, the social democrats, communists and greens are all committed to at least holding a referendum on the subject, at some stage.

what i don't get is why Norway is among the first three. What is the reason?
I can imagine Belgium, Sweden and Spain will become republics. And i understand why people voted for them. But i do not understand the votes for Norway.
But, as i said before, my poll likely to unlikely would be:
1. Spain
2. Sweden
3. Belgium

 

[Zonk]

Please note that speculative posts (as well as responses to the initial post) have been deleted.

While the purpose of this thread is to share your opinion on Which European country is most likely to be a republic, let's not forget that you should stick to stated facts and what is known.

We are not going to predict the deaths of any monarch (sick or not), nor are we going to personally slam them with unfounded statements.

Any and all posts that continue to do so will be deleted without notice.

 

[Ruhije]

Abolished and Restored.

This excellent article is very topical and interesting re recently abolished Monarchies (Nepal) and other either restored or restituted Royals and Monarchies. BBC News Magazine - What next for Kings?

Link correction - WHAT DO MONARCHS DO NEXT?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/7426349.stm

 

[James VI]

The only Reigning Monarchy that i could really see heading in that direction in future, but not necessarily soon, would be Bahrain because of the recent and ongoing unrest and oppression of the people, especially with the Sunni/Shia imbalance and divide, and the Bahraini Al-Khalifah Dynasty being of the Sunni minority (but ruling elite).
I cant think of any other obviously and equally unpopular ruling dynasties at any similar level of crisis, but i suppose the ones to watch in the longer-term future for signs of any public (and brave) unrest could be Saudi Arabia.
Other countries that could maybe have the ingredients for unrest or political crisis are not obvious candidates for any anger to be directed and targeted at their fairly or even very popular Monarchies - Morocco, Jordan, Thailand.

I think the example of Bahrain is a very good one, Ruhije, and as you have explained, the situation there is quite unique. Reigning houses will only ever be threatened if there is sufficient political will to exploit popular discontent, something we have not seen here in the West, with regards to monarchies. We may occassionally criticise our Royal families, and there may on occassion be justification for such criticism, but ulitimately, the idea of replacing a centuries old institution with a soulless republic, is simply to much to even contemplate and our political " masters " know this only too well.

 

[Ruhije]

Future Abolished Monarchies

Yes, apart from recent troubles in unique Bahrain, what other Monarchies have any obvious political ingredients or circumstances for popular uprising or crisis leading to a monarchy being abolished?
Saudi Arabia could have unrest in the future, but with only a small Shia minority in the eastern region, and ruling Sunni majority Al-Saud Dynasty, its not the same imbalance and situation as Bahrain.
Also the situation and unrest in Bahrain started off not so much as just an anti-Monarchy issue, but as much or predominantly a Shia/Sunni discontent and discrimination issue.

 

[Ruhije]

This excellent article is very topical and interesting re recently abolished Monarchies (Nepal) and other either restored or restituted Royals and Monarchies. BBC News Magazine - What next for Kings?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2hi/uk_news/magazine/7426349.stm

Apologies! - Link correction -

BBC NEWS | UK | Magazine | What do monarchs do next?

 

[NGalitzine]

I would put Swaziland on the list for possible overthrow. The King, his many wives and large family live a luxurious life in an impoverished country ravaged by HIV AIDS. There is little in the way of democracy and stories of foreign aid funds being diverted to the royal family.

 

[Ruhije]

Swaziland and Lesotho.

Thats interesting about Swaziland, and a Kingdom i only know a little about.
I dont know how strongly their Monarchy is tied in with Tribal loyalty and popularity among the Swazi people and the nations identity?

I have heard similar or more regarding the politics and Monarchy in Lesotho, several years ago, and must check out their current situation and status too.

 

[Artemisia]

I would put Swaziland on the list for possible overthrow. The King, his many wives and large family live a luxurious life in an impoverished country ravaged by HIV AIDS. There is little in the way of democracy and stories of foreign aid funds being diverted to the royal family.

I agree, Swaziland's monarchy style cannot hold for much longer.
Concerning the King's many wives though, isn't he actually obliged to marry a woman from every tribe or region?

 

[NGalitzine]

He takes a new wife each year at some sort of national ceremony. The problem is the expense of housing/clothing all these ladies as the years go by, as well as all the children that result. What once was seen as normal has become quite costly to a poor nation these days. There is a pro democracy movement, as well as a push from outside the nation for more democratic and open institutions but not sure how influential they have been.

 

[Ruhije]

Confused and want Answers!

The results of this poll are completely confusing. Spain is rated as most likely to abolish it`s Monarchy, despite the fact that none of the mainstream parties, in Spanish politics, have any real committment to doing so. Sweden, conversely, is given one of the lowest ratings and yet, the social democrats, communists and greens are all committed to at least holding a referendum on the subject, at some stage.

Same here, i dont understand the reasoning in the answers and percentages given in this poll. My point is the same made, the poll results just dont make sense or add-up when compared to the political situations and governments attitudes or policy regarding the Monarchies polled highest for being abolished.
Personally i cant see any obvious Monarchy in Europe so unpopular or near any kind of crisis to even be scored high at all in this poll.
It might have made more sense or been more relevant if the poll had covered the whole World of Monarchies, and not just Europe where all the Monarchies are generally stable and most are at worst reasonably popular (this is supported by various national polls on Monarchies).
The only Monarchy, or more so the only Nation, in Europe where i could see any potential for any future problem of concern for it's Monarchy would possibly be Belgium.
But i dont see this as an Anti-Monarchy issue, but a political issue of the Flemish and Walloon problem. And even then, in the worst case scenario of Belgium splitting (which i think most unlikely), i could still perceive a secure and stable future for the Belgian Monarchy under any new Walloonian Belgium, without Flanders.
The idea of Spain getting rid of its Monarchy really baffles me!
A World Monarchies Poll would be more interesting, as it could then include Monarchies like - Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Swaziland, Lesotho, etc.

 

[Artemisia]

Which non-European country is likely to become a republic soon, and why?

As per Ruhije's suggestion made in "Which European country is likely to become a republic, and why?", I thought it will be interesting to find out which of the other world Monarchies, including the Commonwealth realms (other than the UK) are likely to become Monarchies any time soon.

I'm not sure how to add a poll, so hopefully one of the admins or moderators will do that.

The choice is the following:

Commonwealth Realms excluding the United Kingdom (Head of State - Elizabeth II)
- Canada
- Australia
- New Zealand
- Bahamas
- Barbados
- Belize
- Antigua and Barbuda
- Jamaica
- Grenada
- Papua New Guinea
- Tuvalu
- Saint Kitts and Nevis
- Saint Lucia
- Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
- Solomon Islands

Other Monarchies:
- Japan (Emperor Akihito)
- Jordan (Abdullah II)
- Morocco (Mohammed VI)
- Thailand (King Bhumibol Adulyadej)
- Bahrain (King Hamad ibn Isa)
- Saudi Arabia (King Abdullah bin Abdul‘aziz)
- Bhutan (King Jigme Khesar Namgyel)
- Cambodia (King Norodom Sihamoni)
- Lesotho (King Letsie III)
- Malaysia (King Mizan Zainal Abidin)
- Swaziland (King Mswati III)
- Tonga (King Siaosi Tupou V)
- Brunei (Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah)
- Oman (Sultan Qaboos bin Said)
- Kuwait (Emir Sabah al-Ahmad)
- Qatar (Emir Hamad bin Khalifa)
- United Arab Emirates (Khalifa bin Zayed)

 

[Ruhije]

Monarchy or Republic?

Yes, i do think this is an interesting debate, but im confused now by these various threads as some of us have been already discussing this issue (and also Which Republics could become a Monarchy?) in two other threads in the General Royal Discussion section, the similar established thread we are having this debate in is "Which Country could Abolish its Monarchy"?
Although, Yes a Poll on these would be really more interesting and have much more scope than just Europe!
I have already sited Bahrain as the only obvious or possible Monarchy that i can see could have the ingredients for this in the future, mainly due to the Shia/Sunni issue and recent unrest, and the Al-Khalifa Monarchies handling of this situation.
I think Saudi Arabia may be another to watch in the longterm future, but i dont think its as obvious as Bahrain and the Al-Khalifah Dynasty.
Others have suggested in their recent posts, maybe Swaziland, but i cant think of any other common or obvious suggestions of other Monarchies actually likely to be abolished and become Republics.
I suppose various Commonwealth Countries are always a possibility.

 

[James VI]

Opinion Poll.

Yes it is interesting to have a debate on the future of Monarchies outside of Europe, but an opinion poll on the issue would be almost as silly as the poll on the fate of European Monarchies, which already exists. To date, two countries on this list have conducted genuine polls, ie referendums, on their constituitional status, Australia and Tuvalu, and in both cases republican status was flatly rejected. Beyond Bahrain, i think it would be safe to say that the Commonwealth nations are the most likely to move away from Monarchy, cutting links with the British Crown is often couched in terms of national identity and independence, with Queen Elizabeth portayed as a " foreign " Head of State. But even here, the debate is confused, republican objectives contradictory, and beyond those on the left, there is little political appetite for change.

 

[Banchelor]

Bahrain it seems unstable country
if i remember right then Bhutan did want build up democratic country
UAE most inhabitants are immigrants

 

[Artemisia]

If I had to choose, I would say Bahrain, Swaziland and some of the Commonwealth realms are among the likeliest to become republic. I'm not saying they will; however, there is certainly a very visible pro-republic movements in those countries.

The non-European Monarchy that is safest at this time appears to be Japan; I simply cannot envision the end of the Japanese Monarchy any time soon.

 

[James VI]

Colonialism

If the Swazi King is a burden on his Nation`s finances and a block on political reform, then it is for the people of Swaziland to decide his, and indeed their own, fate. The idea that " outside interests " should play any role in influencing constitutional matters or attempt to undermine traditional loyalties, strikes me as a very crude form of Western colonialism. Why should societies be forced to accept values and beliefs which are contrary to their own, or adopt a system of governance which is completely alien to them? Or are we saying that our system of governance, values, and beliefs is superior and therefor must be imposed, regardless?

 

[NGalitzine]

The push from ouside has more do to with foreign aid money given for one reason and then being used to support the royal lifestyle. Aid givers are taking a closer look at where their money is going so if aid is reduced or withdrawn that does impact on the Swazi people.Its not a question of imposing a western belief system its a question of watching where your money is going and if it is benefiting the people it was intended to benefit.

 

[Ruhije]

Why would Monarchy be Abolished?

in my opinion belgium, bahrain and spain

I think the possible candidates you suggest where Monarchies could be abolished are interesting.
I wont repeat all the reasons and situation re Bahrain, as ive already made that case and my reasoning within this thread, and therefore agree with you.
Regarding Belgium, i have also posted about this in the "Which European Monarchies most likely could be Abolished" and related poll thread.
To clarify, my view is any problems and issues in Belgium are far more about the Flemish/Walloon debate, and much less an issue of Anti-Monarchist sentiment. Even in the unlikely but worst case scenario of Belgium splitting, i would still see a secure future for the Belgian Royal family in any Walloon Belgium Monarchy, just maybe without Flemish Flanders.
As for Sweden, which some others have suggested, well im far from in agreement with this suggestion and possibility. Although several Swedish political parties (all from the left) are in favour of a referendum on their Monarchy, and an opinion poll has showed mixed opinion on the subject, there is no strong or general anti-Monarchy feeling. In fact on some levels the Swedish Monarchy is very popular, and strikes a good balance between being a modern Monarchy, yet being part of Swedens traditions, heritage, and national identity among the other Scandanavian Monarchies.
And Spain, although i keep reading Prince Felipe is not as popular as King Juan Carlos, i dont see the political ingredients or popular and mass anti-Monarchy movement that high-lights Spain as a good case for near future Abolishing its Monarchy, also this point is well made by others in the other thread too "Which European Monarchy.....Abolish" and poll.

 

[Burzg]

Serbia

 

[Ruhije]

Serbia?

Serbia

Serbia is a Republic, NOT a Monarchy!
And anyway, the Serbian Royal family has returned to Serbia and been generally welcomed, with a palace home in Belgrade and some restitution of diplomacy and informal role for Crown Prince Alexander within Serbian society and diplomatic circles.

 

[madrid]

IMO, Sweden, Spain, Denmark and Belgium.

 

[Ruhije]

Abolish these Monarchies?

IMO, Sweden, Spain, Denmark and Belgium.

Ok, but WHY?
You site no reasons for this view - Political opinion, mass popular demands for referendum, and anti-Monarchist momentum, public opinion or Monarcho-political crisis?
Just dont see this (IMO!), or why?