I think you are totally spot on here.
There is a lot of things you can say about our current king, but one of his main priorities is to do everything he can to make sure that the line of succession isn't a short list. He is very aware that the Swedish royal family was in big trouble just a generation ago.
I would be willing to bet that it was the king who persuaded Madeleine to remain in the line of succession, along with her children. I don't think she's particularly interested of that herself. When Leonore was born, she was - and still is - the spare. That might change if Victoria and Daniel have more children, and if CP and Sofia also become parents. If there are two or more other cousins born by the time she's supposed to start school, my guess is that Madeleine and Chris will decide to - with the kings consent - take her out of the line of succesion and remain in the US.