Succession and Membership Issues

[Prisma]

On October 15th, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) held its 4th meeting on stable Imperial Succession and welcomed Teijirō Furukawa, former Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, as lecturer.

Furukawa directed events related to Emperor Showa's mourning period and Emperor Akihito's enthronement for the bureaucracy.

Unfortunately, the CDP has not updated its website yet so there's only committee chair Banri Kaieda's tweet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1051748195238199298

 

[Prisma]

On October 25th, the CDP held its 5th meeting on stable succession and welcomed Shinji Yamashita as lecturer. Yamashita worked for the IHA for 23 years including 7 years as media liaison (1988-1995). He provided valuable experience on how the Imperial Household Agency works.

Again, source is Banri Kaieda's tweet because the CDP website has not updated about the 4th or this 5th meeting.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1055392951923163136

A bit more on Yamashita at the bottom of his profile on CP Naruhito in May for Nippon.com: "After leaving the IHA in 2001, he was a director at a publishing company before going freelance in 2004. Active as a television analyst and a writer. Works include Ima shitte okitai tennō to kōshitsu (Understanding the Emperor and Imperial Family Today)."

 

[Prisma]

Not surprising. I thought the delay was already confirmed? Even if there are discussions, I expect much talking and no action from the current government.

Japan's government to delay discussion on creating female Imperial branches | The Japan Times

[...]

The government will not launch in-depth discussions on the issue at least until after Crown Prince Naruhito accedes to the throne on May 1 next year, the sources said.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told the Diet last week that there are many different views about the proposal to allow the creation of female Imperial branches.

“A full analysis and consideration as well as careful procedures are needed to build a national consensus,” Abe said.

[...]

Abe’s caution over the proposal comes as conservatives, his main support base, worry that establishing such branches will eventually allow female Imperial family members or people on the maternal Imperial bloodline to accede to the throne.

A resolution attached to a law on Emperor Akihito’s abdication enacted in June last year calls on the government to deliberate the proposed creation of female Imperial branches. But the dominant view within the government is that it will be difficult to reach a national consensus on the matter, the sources said.

“There is no rush to reach a conclusion,” noted one of the sources, [...]

 

[Muhler]

If we all close our eyes perhaps the problem will go away...

 

[M. Payton]

And with eyes closed then eventually the royal family will fade away and will be be no more....such is the way of getting rid of a monarchy be it constitutional or not.......

Does Japan really want that to happen?

 

[Somebody]

So, what woild happen if Hisahito dies withour off-spring and if they did allow for female branches? Which branch would be the most likely to provide the next emperor?

 

[Spheno]

So, what woild happen if Hisahito dies withour off-spring and if they did allow for female branches? Which branch would be the most likely to provide the next emperor?

This is the most important question in this situation. Delay allows to skip Aiko and go to Mako and Kako or, maybe, Hisahito's future daughters.
Aiko is not very exciting potential empress. So the government's decision makes sense.

 

[CrownPrincessJava]

What astonishes me is that the Japanese government and Imperial Family are more content for the Imperial family to become extinct than the prospect of a Royal Princess, or a male from a maternal branch, ascending the throne.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

If we all close our eyes perhaps the problem will go away...

What problem (for the government)? Going the route of a smaller imperial family will doubtlessly be a problem for Emperor Akihito and those who agree with his ideas about the monarchy, but it will be welcomed by Prime Minister Abe and those who agree with his ideas about the monarchy.

And with eyes closed then eventually the royal family will fade away and will be be no more....such is the way of getting rid of a monarchy be it constitutional or not.......

Does Japan really want that to happen?

I don't think there is any chance of Japan getting rid of its monarchy in the near future, even if the current imperial family goes extinct.

See my post #1074:

There is no risk of the monarchy going extinct as long as a heavy majority of the population and politicians continue to be in favor of the monarchy. There was an Ipsos MORI poll this year with only 4% of Japanese agreeing that abolishing their monarchy would "make things better", while 35% thought it would "make things worse". Should Hisahito never produce a male heir, the Imperial House Law will be amended so that there is a successor.

But continuing as is increases the risks that:


1. The number of royal engagements undertaken by the imperial family will drop.

This is guaranteed to happen when the older generation retires and the younger generation of princesses are married, since the latter will lose their status when they marry, and the imperial family will shrink.


2. Hisahito's successor grows up as a private citizen, not educated for taking on the duties of an emperor and not likely to have stayed neutral in relation to his or her business engagements or political stances prior to being chosen as the successor.

That would be expected to happen if Hisahito cannot produce a male heir and his daughters are not allowed to reign, or if he produces no children. All of the relatives who would be under consideration for succeeding Hisahito (descendants of ex-princesses and male-line descendants of ex-princes) would be commoners.​

The knowledge that the public overwhelmingly wants to maintain the monarchy, and would not want to get rid of it even if the current royal line were to go extinct, is one of the reasons why delaying is a good strategic choice for politicians who oppose female succession.

What astonishes me is that the Japanese government and Imperial Family are more content for the Imperial family to become extinct than the prospect of a Royal Princess, or a male from a maternal branch, ascending the throne.

Which member(s) of the Imperial Family? Emperor Akihito has sent the clear message that he supports the introduction of male-preference primogeniture, even though he was unwilling to accept equal inheritance.

This is the most important question in this situation. Delay allows to skip Aiko and go to Mako and Kako or, maybe, Hisahito's future daughters.
Aiko is not very exciting potential empress. So the government's decision makes sense.

Abe's government opposes female branches on principle. I do not think they would find the idea of Mako, Kako, or Hisahito's daughter ascending the throne any more exciting than Aiko.

 

[CrownPrincessJava]

Which member(s) of the Imperial Family? Emperor Akihito has sent the clear message that he supports the introduction of male-preference primogeniture, even though he was unwilling to accept equal inheritance.

The soon-to-be Crown Prince comes to mind. He went as far to say that they should reintroduce concubines. And it seems the Emperor's acceptance to the introduction to male-preference primogeniture only occurred when he realises how close the Imperial Family is to becoming extinct if nothing occurs.



I understand how the Japanese culture is, but it still amazes me that the Imperial Family and general public, who clearly adore their Imperial Family, are willing to sit back and wait and see.



Honestly, the actions made by the Government, and the Imperial Family to an extent, shows me that they would rather no Royal family than have one headed by a Empress regent, or an Emperor descendant from a maternal line.



Wow. The mind boggles...

 

[M. Payton]

And to think that Japan at one time had an Empress as Regent without a male. It boggles the mind how narrow/small the mind of male species in the Japanese government works in this world today. And to think the people voted for this in their government........

 

[Prisma]

This is the most important question in this situation. Delay allows to skip Aiko and go to Mako and Kako or, maybe, Hisahito's future daughters.
Aiko is not very exciting potential empress. So the government's decision makes sense.

I disagree with your comment on Aiko.

The traditionalists don't want any female successors or even female-led Imperial branches. Doesn't matter if it's Aiko, Mako, Kako, or Hisahito's daughters.

The soon-to-be Crown Prince comes to mind. He went as far to say that they should reintroduce concubines. And it seems the Emperor's acceptance to the introduction to male-preference primogeniture only occurred when he realises how close the Imperial Family is to becoming extinct if nothing occurs. [...]

I believe it was Prince Tomohito of Mikasa who mentioned reintroducing concubines. Not Prince Akishino.

The reality of the rapidly decreasing Imperial family probably forced a new perspective for the emperor.

And to think that Japan at one time had an Empress as Regent without a male. It boggles the mind how narrow/small the mind of male species in the Japanese government works in this world today. And to think the people voted for this in their government........

I don't think the Imperial family was high on the minds of voters. The public sympathizes but the economy, North Korea, jobs, health care, etc. take priority. In addition, the opposition is weak and ineffective. I read someone reluctantly voted for the LDP as TINA "there is no alternative" in last year's elections.

 

[Muhler]

Aiko, Mako and Kako simply identify themselves as males. - Problem solved.
The conservatives gonna love that one!

The proposal is no more absurd than the government bringing themselves in a situation where there is a genuine risk of the PM being tapped on the shoulder one day: Excuse me, sir. It appears we no longer have an Imperial lineage.

 

[Furienna]

And to think that Japan at one time had an Empress as Regent without a male. It boggles the mind how narrow/small the mind of male species in the Japanese government works in this world today. And to think the people voted for this in their government........

As I have understood it, all of the new emperors for many centuries (many millennia) came from the same paternal line. Even if there have some times been a reigning empress between two men on the throne. Am I wrong?

 

[Tatiana Maria]

As I have understood it, all of the new emperors for many centuries (many millennia) came from the same paternal line. Even if there have some times been a reigning empress between two men on the throne. Am I wrong?

That is correct, because all of the husbands of the empresses (four empresses had been widowed, and the other four did not marry) were their paternal relatives. Empress Suiko was married to her half-brother (son of her father), Empress Kogyoku/Saimei and Empress Jito were married to their uncles (brothers of their fathers), and Empress Genmei was married to her cousin/nephew (son of her sister, who was married to their father's brother). So, when the children or grandchildren of the empresses succeeded to the imperial throne, the new emperor or empress came from the same paternal line.

This is one of the objections from traditionalists to female succession: In this day and age, Aiko, Mako, and Kako would certainly not marry a brother or uncle, and the odds are that they would not marry a cousin from the same paternal line.

 

[Ista]

That is correct, because all of the husbands of the empresses (four empresses had been widowed, and the other four did not marry) were their paternal relatives. Empress Suiko was married to her half-brother (son of her father), Empress Kogyoku/Saimei and Empress Jito were married to their uncles (brothers of their fathers), and Empress Genmei was married to her cousin/nephew (son of her sister, who was married to their father's brother). So, when the children or grandchildren of the empresses succeeded to the imperial throne, the new emperor or empress came from the same paternal line.

This is one of the objections from traditionalists to female succession: In this day and age, Aiko, Mako, and Kako would certainly not marry a brother or uncle, and the odds are that they would not marry a cousin from the same paternal line.

At one point I did see a possible match between Aiko and Hisahito very delicately hinted at, although personally I agree that this is very unlikely in this day and age. However, the traditionalists are a determined bunch, so we will see how this plays out over time. I can't imagine that either Aiko or Hisahito would be wildly enthusiastic about this.

 

[Tatiana Maria]

At one point I did see a possible match between Aiko and Hisahito very delicately hinted at, although personally I agree that this is very unlikely in this day and age. However, the traditionalists are a determined bunch, so we will see how this plays out over time. I can't imagine that either Aiko or Hisahito would be wildly enthusiastic about this.

Quite interesting. Can you recall who offered this suggestion, and what the reaction was at the time?

 

[Ista]

Unfortunately, I cannot remember exactly who or where, but I usually read the Japan Times, or translations of other mainstream Japanese media when I am able. It may have been in one of those. This was at least a couple of years ago, perhaps longer, and I never saw any kind of reaction (letters, comments on fora, etc.) There may have been, but I wasn't aware of it. The comment itself was pretty oblique, like a lot of discussion about the Imperial family.

(edited for clarity)

 

[Tatiana Maria]

Thanks! I suspect that the commenter's decision to remain very oblique indicates that they knew or assumed there would be much opposition to their suggestion (which perhaps came from being unwilling to accept maternal succession but uncomfortable with bypassing the only child of the Crown Prince altogether).

 

[Ista]

I suspect you are correct!

 

[Prisma]

On November 11th, the CDP discussed succession and the Imperial family with university students at this month's "Fui no kai" meeting. The meeting was beneficial as participants said although they do not usually think about the Imperial family, they would like to think about it now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1061542350298636288

布衣の会 "Fui no kai" appears to be some kind of outreach program. The name "Fui no kai" translates to "clothing association" where 布衣 meant clothes of ordinary people, made of cotton and hemp. The name points to the relationship between rich and poor.


On November 14th, the CDP held its 6th meeting on stable succession and welcomed Yasuo Hasebe, professor at Waseda University's Faculty of Law, as lecturer. Hasebe spoke about the background and abdication of Edward VIII, conflict between Catholics and Protestants in Europe, and the rise of mass media.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1062662225851179010

 

[Prisma]

The CDP website posted the 6th meeting with Professor Yasuo Hasebe on November 14th:
https://cdp-japan.jp/news/20181119_1077 (Google translation)


On November 19th, the CDP held its 7th meeting on stable succession and invited former Supreme Court Judge Itsuo Sonobe to discuss 1) next year's abdication/succession 2) permanent succession to the throne. Mr. Sonobe was a central member of the committee on Imperial House Law for the Koizumi Cabinet in 2005.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1064436049785438208

https://twitter.com/x/status/1064436055284232192

 

[Prisma]

On November 21st, the CDP held its 8th meeting on stable succession and invited Dr. Hideya Kawanishi, Associate Professor at Nagoya University Graduate School of Humanities, as lecturer. The meeting's topic focused on the emperor and Imperial family in post-war Japan. Dr. Kawanishi discussed the symbolism as someone born in Showa 50s (1970s) and the way public events are performed in the Heisei era.

Shiori Yamao did not attend the 8th meeting because she was dealing with the LDP pushing through immigration and refugee legislation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1065278729637650432

Japanese historian Takashi Tanaka died on November 24 at age 94 [Mainichi]. I saw a bunch of Japanese tweets mention he advocated female emperor and female imperial branches. Last March he told newspapers that succession should follow directly as in Aiko succeeding Naruhito [Jiji].

 

[Prisma]

On December 7th, the CDP held its 9th meeting on stable succession. The committee discussed the previous 8 lectures and future schedule.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1070879662040014848

 

[Tatiana Maria]

So far, they don't seem to have engaged any persons who are currently in power or made an impact in the media.

On November 14th, the CDP held its 6th meeting on stable succession and welcomed Yasuo Hasebe, professor at Waseda University's Faculty of Law, as lecturer. Hasebe spoke about the background and abdication of Edward VIII, conflict between Catholics and Protestants in Europe, and the rise of mass media.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1062662225851179010

It would be interesting to know how Mr. Hasebe managed to connect the abdication of King Edward VIII of Great Britain and Catholic-Protestant conflict in Europe to stable succession in 21st century Japan!

Japanese historian Takashi Tanaka died on November 24 at age 94 [Mainichi]. I saw a bunch of Japanese tweets mention he advocated female emperor and female imperial branches. Last March he told newspapers that succession should follow directly as in Aiko succeeding Naruhito [Jiji].

I'm aware it won't happen, but Mr. Tanaka's solution would certainly reinvigorate tensions between Fumihito and Naruhito.

Of those Japanese who are in favor of equal succession, I wonder how many want Aiko to inherit and how many want to put equal succession in place only for children born in the future.

 

[Biri]

Wre there tensions between brothers?

 

[Prisma]

On December 12th, the CDP held its 10th meeting on stable succession and heard from the Imperial Household Agency about the imperial economy, mainly on the outline of next year's fiscal budget.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1072770249777238017

[...] It would be interesting to know how Mr. Hasebe managed to connect the abdication of King Edward VIII of Great Britain and Catholic-Protestant conflict in Europe to stable succession in 21st century Japan!

[...]

Of those Japanese who are in favor of equal succession, I wonder how many want Aiko to inherit and how many want to put equal succession in place only for children born in the future.

I think Mr. Hasebe described how the British monarchy and other institutions evolved. Due to religious conflict, those who married to Catholics lost their place in succession. However, they were reinstated after a new law was passed recently. About Edward VIII, Mr. Hasebe focused on the church's stance at the time that did not allow divorcees with living ex-spouses to remarry. That's no longer the case since 2002.

CDP's website updated on the 6th meeting: https://cdp-japan.jp/news/20181119_1077

Yeah, I wonder as well about where the Japanese would start equal succession... My guess would be after Hisahito as I don't see Japan "taking away" the throne from Hisahito to give it to Aiko à la Denmark or Sweden's succession change.

Wre there tensions between brothers?

Yes, CP Naruhito criticized the IHA for denying Masako opportunities and her personality in 2004 during a press conference before a visit abroad. This led to the Emperor Akihito and the IHA scolding the crown prince. Prince Akishino also jumped in to scold his elder brother. IMO it was unnecessary for Akishino to interfere. Birthday and IHA press conferences become battlegrounds for some years afterward although the rift was mended now.

Background: Masako developed shingles in late 2003 and then suffered a nervous breakdown in 2004 so she had been out of public view for a while when Naruhito made his comments.

 

[Prisma]

Japan to start discussions soon on imperial succession system - The Mainichi

The government said Monday it will soon start discussing how to achieve a stable imperial succession, including the creation of female branches of the imperial family.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said during a parliamentary committee session the government will study whether or not to allow female members to remain in the imperial family even when they marry commoners. The process will start immediately after Crown Prince Naruhito succeeds Emperor Akihito on May 1, he said.

[...] The government has held discussions in the past on whether a female member can ascend the throne, but Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party has been cautious about changing the law to allow female monarchs.

[...]

No progress on debate over reducing Imperial Family's burdens as succession nears - The Mainichi

[...]

"There is no definition for an emperor's public duties aside from acts in matters of state," Isao Tokoro, an expert on the history of the Imperial System and a professor emeritus at Kyoto Sangyo University said. "There is a need to think of a new way of doing things, using the upcoming abdication and ensuing succession as an opportunity to do so." But there are no signs that such discussion is taking place. The Imperial Household Agency's review of the emperor's public duties led to no fundamental changes. A senior agency official explained, "Since the new emperor will be younger, we decided to pass the baton with duties as they currently are."

Crown Prince Naruhito has expressed his enthusiasm for pursuing what is required of the Imperial Family "in accordance with the changing times." At a press conference last year, he said that "depending on changes in society, what society seeks from the Imperial Family will change. It is important that we respond to that." [...]

Some criticize that the range of activities carried out by the Imperial Family is expanding as the number of Imperial Family members dwindles. Hideya Kawanishi, an associate professor of modern and contemporary Japanese history at Nagoya University, says there is a need for a nationwide discussion on the issue. "The bar has been lowered for the public to seek certain things from the Imperial Family. We can't deny that the Imperial Family's desire to stay by the side of the people has made them busier. Now is the time to scrap the current way of doing things and build a new one," he suggested.

 

[Muhler]

Hmmm, forgive me for being skeptical. The Abe government has never struck me as a champion of equal rights - on the contrary.
So wonder if this is merely for show?

But as the Imperial family is rapidly running out of spares, it's about time! - If they mean it...

 

[Friedrich Karl II]

Me too don't believe that there will be any changes on succession laws. Seems ratherly PR trick.