These are questions that should preferably not be asked.
Japan is in a different situation debt-wise than say the South-East Asian economies some years ago. You may recall that the economic bubble there suddenly burst.
Very simplified it all started with a big lender saying: "I want my money! Now!"
When no such physical, real money could be obtained, it started a chain reaction and the economy collapsed.
No Japanese creditors will do that.
And being the third largest economy in the world, Japan will not be allowed to collapse financially.
Nor will the US economy, despite that fact that the debt means that USA is de facto insolvent.
Nor will anyone answer this question: What is the real value of the Chinese Yuan?
The EU-economy is based on Merkelnomics = Austerity. With the result that half the EU countries are struggling because they can't invest their way out their crisis, because that means taking out massive loans.
All that is possible if the fragile economic stability worldwide is maintained.
That means do not rock the boat by starting trade wars between major economic powers and do not demand too much money from your debtors!
And keep the global trade going at all costs! Don't go protectionist and start producing (and protecting) products at home. - Protectionism is the biggest danger Japan is facing!
Japan cannot survive on producing for their own home market and to a number of relatively small markets. So no trade barriers. No 50-50 trade policy, in regards to export and import.
And that is the policy of the Trump administration.
Japan cannot, and will not, import products from USA on anything remotely resembling a 50-50 level. So the imposed trade barriers that could become a result of that would be pure poison for the Japanese economy!
The only thing Japan can import from USA that would create a satisfactory amount of jobs in USA (because that's what it is all about) is arms. That is Japan will have to rearm, big time! Increasing the Japanese debt a lot more.
None of Japans neighbors will be happy about that, nor will the Japanese public!
The alternative is for Japan to start reducing its debt. And that means goodbye to Abenomics and an end to the Japanese consumer-party they have had for almost a generation now.
That won't be popular either! Not least because it will inevitably mean loss of jobs because the domestic market will be reduced for Japanese products.
The normal solution would be for Japan to increase production and dump the prizes. But China, USA, EU and South Korea will do the same and likely impose trade barriers. Not to mention that the Japanese population is shrinking in the decades to come. Making it more difficult to increase production. And will Japan begin to import millions of foreign workers to fill the places?
So what to do?
If anyone has got the answer, there is a Nobel Prize in Economy waiting for you. ?
The Japanese economy will not be allowed to fall, but they may have to accept some terms, they cannot refuse.
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Yes, I believe Abe does have a bad health. It is indeed an unfortunate time to change the PM, because Japan really needs someone very experienced and strong at the helm for the next few years, regardless of whether you agree with Abe's policy or not.
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The Imperial Family has no interest in, and should not, being associated with the government's policy. Especially if serious and unpleasant economic reforms are to be implemented.
