So, Jo, you're finding a few cases of millions-to-one chances of things. I think we're all agreed that 99.9999% isn't 100%; just about all good scientific results are presented with error limits to give some information about the precision and accuracy of the results. But this still strikes me as the same argument you were using the other day about scientific fraud -a rather unusual occurrence happens in some completely different context, and therefore we should be suspicious of these results over here. If this standard was applied across the sciences, nothing would ever get done. I mean, it's fairly clear from what you're saying that your position about the DNA data isn't provisional acceptance but provisional rejection; my personal feeling is that these results are better than that, given the people who were involved in producing them.
I don't know about Peter Gill's credentials, but it isn't an exaggeration to say that Mark Stoneking is a world leader in mtDNA research. I assume he's aware of some of these quirks of mtDNA mutation and inheritance. If new information had come in since 1994 which had invalidated his results, I very much doubt that other researchers (such as the Knight group at Stanford) would have been shy about mentioning it. As of this February when he responded to my e-mail, he was standing by his results, and I doubt that he's unaware of the developments in this area of research.
I believe that for the other paper they wrote (the one about the mass grave which they say contains the skeletons of the Tsar, the Tsarina, and three of their children, the mtDNA matches were exact (at the loci that were tested, at any rate). The actual wording from that paper is as follows:
"Both DNA strands of both hypervariable mtDNA regions were sequenced for all samples, with the exception of skeleton 9 (a probable servant)...No sequence differences were observed between duplicate samples from the same individual...The quality of the sequence was generally comparable to that produced from the fresh blood samples...Pairwise comparisons from the nine bone samples indicated that six different sequences were present in the group which varied on average by six nucleotides and identical sequences were generated from the putative Tasrina and three children...HRH Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh, is a grand-nephew of unbroken maternal descent from Tsarina Alexandra. He prvided a sample of blood for comparison purposes which enabled us to confirm the sibling status of the children adnd the identification of the mother; all of the mtDNA sequences were the same."
From Table 2 of that paper, the mtDNA results look like this:
CTCCCCACCTTT ATTA*** (reference sequence)
TTCCCCACCTTC ATTG..C (female child 1)
TTCCCCACCTTC AT-G..C (female child 2)
TTCCCCACCTTC ATTG..C (female child 3)
TTCCCCACCTTC ATTG..C (adult female, putative Tsarina)
TTCCCCACCTTC ATTG..C (Prince Philip)
The dash for female child 2 indicates no nucleotide assignment; the stars show where nucleotides were used that weren't in the Anderson reference sequence (where "Anderson" has nothing to do with Anna Anderson but is a quite different Anderson); the red letters show where the listed sequences differ from the reference sequence, and in each case these differences are the same across all samples.
In this analysis, the result for the skeleton identified as being the Tsar was as follows, along with sequences for a couple of female-line relations of the Tsar:
CCYCCCATTTTC GTTG..C (adult male, putative Tsar)
CCTCCCATTTTC GTTG..C (Gt Gt grandson of Louise of Hesse-Cassel)
CCTCCCATTTTC GTTG..C (Gt Gt Gt granddaughter of Louise)
Again in each case they match, except for the Y in the Tsar's sequence, which is a C/T heteroplasmy - even so, the T is the same nucleotide as in the other two sequences.
From comparing the two papers, I'm seeing the following:
At position 16111 the nucleotides are as follows:
Putative Tsar - C
Putative Tsarina - T
Prince Philip - T
Anna Anderson intestine - T
Anna Anderson hair - T
At position 16126:
Putative Tsar - T
Putative Tsarina - T
Prince Philip - T
Anna Anderson intestine - C
Anna Anderson hair - C
At position 16266:
Putative Tsar - no data
Putative Tsarina - no data
Prince Philip - C
Anna Anderson intestine - T
Anna Anderson hair - T
At position 16294:
Putative Tsar - T
Putative Tsarina - C
Prince Philip - C
Anna Anderson intestine - T
Anna Anderson hair - T
At position 16304:
Putative Tsar - T
Putative Tsarina - T
Prince Philip - T
Anna Anderson intestine - C
Anna Anderson hair - C
At position 16357:
Putative Tsar - T
Putative Tsarina - C
Prince Philip - C
Anna Anderson intestine - T
Anna Anderson hair - T
So the Anna Anderson samples match the Prince Philip sample in one position out of six, the putative Tsarina sample in one position out of five, the putative Tsar sample in two positions out of five, and neither the Tsar nor the Tsarina in two positions out of five. I don't know what sort of result you were expecting if Anna Anderson was Anastasia and if Anastasia had inherited mtDNA from both parents. Do you think the above data show the sort of pattern that would lead to this conclusion?